Issue 3/2020 (August 19, 2020)
|Data File (XLSX)||Archive|
As expected, COVID-19 and the shutdown have led to a sharp downturn of Liechtenstein’s business cycle: The KonSens fell again, to −4.5 in the 2nd quarter and therefore scored the lowest value since the beginning of the time series. Thus, the KonSens signals economic growth and capacity utilization on historically low level, even undercutting the trough during the financial crisis in 2008/2009. For the third quarter of 2020, the KonSens is anticipated to increase again.
The new business cycle index KonSens by the Liechtenstein Institute is a quarterly, coincident composite indicator for Liechtenstein's business cycle pattern und consists of 16 individual economic indicators. It focuses on the state of Liechtenstein's business cycle, rather than on its determinants or influences. The KonSens generate for each quarter an indexed data point (removed from seasonal effects and long-run trend) that can be interpreted as the national economy’s capacity utilization. The Name „KonSens“ originates from the conception of the „business cycle as a consensus“ (Burns and Mitchell, 1946) of various individual business cycle impulses. But it is also the simple abbreviation of „Konjunktur-Sensor“ (sensor of Liechtenstein's business cycle situation).
The KonSens offers a timely aggregation of various – sometimes contradicting – business cycle signals to a consistent picture (with a publication lag of around 6 weeks), can be understood as a conceptual supplement to the ordinary focus on GDP and is accessible on a timelier and more frequent basis. It allows an easy interpretation for policy, public administration, media, companies and general public. It combines different data origins and dimensions and improves data base for economic analyses and also enables better reporting, monitoring and surveillance. The KonSens project is supported via initial funding by the Liechtenstein Government.